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With the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of the Islamic terrorist organization Hamas, Israel’s external intelligence agency Mossad has salvaged its professional prestige, honour, pride and the trust which the Israeli people have reposed in it, to a considerable extent. All of these were seriously dented after the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas in which they had massacred some 1,200 Israeli civilians and took 251 of them hostage.
It was imperative for Israel to avenge the terrible outrage of October 7. An unverified video has surfaced on social media in which an ecstatic Haniyeh is seen watching that horrific terrorist attack on Al Jazeera TV, and inviting everyone present to kneel and pray. David Barnea, the chief of Mossad, had said in January itself that his service was ‘obliged’ to hunt down the leaders of Hamas. Israel confirmed on August 1 that Mohammed Deif, Hamas’s top military commander, was also got killed in an Israeli air raid in southern Gaza on July 13.
Haniyeh was killed along with his bodyguard in the heart of Tehran where he was a state guest of Iran for attending the inauguration of the new President Masoud Pezeshkhian, not far from the Presidential palace. He was seen hugging the president the day before and the two men raised their hands together, making the victory sign.
Israel has, as expected, officially neither acknowledged nor denied killing Haniyeh. Still, speculations are rife that the assassination might result in escalation leading up to an all-out war with Israel.
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Assassination Par Excellence
The ultimate truth of such covert operations would perhaps never be known for obvious reasons—you disclose it and people would work out counters, rendering them unusable for future. This is, however, the stuff on which Hollywood would make films for decades. The Munich Olympic massacre of Israeli athletes took place in 1972 and within a year, in Operation Wrath of God, Mossad killed the terrorists. Spielberg made the film Munich on this in 2005!
The Bomb Theory: The New York Times claimed on August 1, citing some ‘Middle Eastern officials’ (whatever that means) that he was assassinated by an explosive device covertly smuggled and planted months ago into the Tehran guesthouse where he was staying and it was remotely triggered at the ungodly hour of 2 a.m. The guesthouse is run and guarded by the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and is part of a large compound, known as Neshat, in an upscale neighbourhood of northern Tehran.
From a professional perspective, unless the IRGC are utterly dumb or the loyalty of a large number of people was ‘bought’, it is difficult to believe that amidst their paranoid security, a bomb could be smuggled and planted in a room which must certainly would have and should have been ‘swept’ for bombs and electronic bugs before a VIP came to stay in it.
I am deeply sceptical about the theory and it looks like a red herring. It is only the ignorant laymen or ‘professional duffers’ who start jumping with excitement over such mythically ‘amazing operational capability’ of Israeli agencies. Sorry, real life is different.
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From the photo of the damage to the building available in public domain, the view of the target room is obscured by green net and scientifically it is not possible to comment on the type of device; how much explosive it had; whether it was a ‘directional’ device; or it was a 360 degree device just concealed somewhere without any ‘tamping’.
The NYT speaking of the explosion having shaken the building, shattered some windows and caused the partial collapse of an exterior wall is so utterly childish that it can only be pitied. Similar effects would be had from a missile or shell also.
The building remained largely intact. It means the warhead had a small charge and accuracy of the strike was paramount. This is supported by the fact that the next room where the leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziyad al-Nakhalah, was staying was not significantly damaged.
Killer Robot Theory: Theoretically, it is possible to use an AI-assisted remote controlled ‘killer’ robot to carry explosive or a sniper rifle, as they had done for assassinating Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s top nuclear scientist in September 2021. However, that was in a rural town near the Caspian Sea. Thinking of such a thing in a IRGC guesthouse is outrageous.
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The Missile Theory: Yet another theory maintains that it was a missile fired from some drone or aircraft. The Iranian state media IRNA’s first reaction was also of an ‘airborne guided projectile’. This theory raises the question as to what was the Iranian air defence system doing? Tehran is 200 km from nearest border. Why they were not able to detect and counter an aerial vehicle.
However, it has been pointed out that the April 2024 drone attack on a military air base near Isfahan was probably launched from inside Iran to beat the air defence system. It too could have been a similar attack launched from inside their borders. Tasnim News Agency, the media outlet for the IRGC, reported that witnesses said an object like a missile had hit the window.
The killing of Haniyeh is acutely reminiscent of the killing of Sheikh Aiyman al Zawahiri, chief of Al Qaida in Kabul in August 2022. He was killed in the balcony of his house (some 600m from the Presidential palace) by an AGM 114 R9X modified Hellfire missile fired from a drone. In all probability, it had to be real-time HUMINT by someone who might have also ‘lit up’ the target with a laser for the missile to home in. There is no way TECHINT could ever tell you that a target would be or is in his balcony at a given time. HUMINT must have played a similar role here too.
The Spike FireFly Urban Warfare Drone Theory: The Firefly is a coaxial rotor loitering munition drone. Or else, it might have even been a more conventional quadcopter. They could be made to enter through a window. The FireFly is part of Rafael’s SPIKE family of precision-guided munitions, sharing guidance and other components from the SPIKE NLOS (non-line-of-sight) missile. The vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) drone is designed to offer beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) capability by operating both via within line-of sight operator-in-the-loop control, as well as autonomously via flying on autopilot to waypoints. It has a dual infrared and electro-optical seeker as well as proximity sensors. The weapon is capable of running down ‘agile targets’ and it can fly inside windows and doors to strike enemies behind cover. Warhead is 350 grams of explosive. Drone is as good a candidate as the drone-launched missile, but there would be a problem if the windows had bulletproof glass.
The real beauty of an intelligence operation in either mode of attack lies in launching it from inside Iranian territory.
The Rival Faction Theory: It has also been speculated that Israel has not done it at all and it is some rival faction, which has done it. Nothing is impossible but while rivalry is well-known, the fact on record is that on July 23 only, the rivals Hamas, Fatah and 12 other Palestinian groups have signed a “national unity” agreement in Beijing on an ‘interim national reconciliation government’ in Gaza once Israel’s war ends.
Crookedness of Those Lamenting the Assassination
The usual suspects who write on such subjects have started lamenting that the assassination has dashed hopes of a ceasefire or peace agreement with Hamas. That Haniyeh headed Hamas’s political operations from overseas and acted as a key interlocutor with international mediators is being projected as if this terrorist was the ultimate harbinger of peace!
Question is does Israel really care or should they care about peace at the cost of national honour or survival with honour? They have already killed 39,480 Palestinians and wounded 91,128 in Gaza since the October 7, 2023 dastardly attack. Should they stop? No! Why should they? Who are these people to prescribe that the cause of justice shall be served by Israel killing only such and such numbers of Hamas terrorists and not more? Who are they to prescribe what course the retaliation must take? Trying to scare Israelis by saying that the lives of overseas Jews could be imperilled is ridiculous.
Israel faced a Hezbollah rocket attack also on July 27 on a soccer field in Majdal Shams that killed 12 kids. Are they worried or scared? No! They responded by hitting 10 targets in 7 areas of southern Lebanon immediately. They killed Fuad Shukr, who served on Hezbollah’s Jihad Council and was a close advisor to Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. Netanyahu had the guts to acknowledge it in a nationally televised address.
Fact is, militarily Israel is not isolated and the US still stands by them. By the end of June, many issues regarding weapons supply were resolved. Following the Hezbollah attack and Israeli response, three American warships (USS Wasp, New York and Oak Hill) with 2,500 Marines are heading towards the Lebanese Coast.
Critics of Israel pile on US senators like Bernie Sanders who calls Netanyahu a ‘war criminal’. Fact is who cares? Views of isolated personalities do not reflect the views of the US establishment. Kamala Harris has said ‘she will not be silent’ on the suffering in Gaza and called on all sides to pursue and sign a ceasefire deal. Simple rhetoric! Even Palestinian rights advocates want to know exactly what that means for US foreign policy?
Can Iran Really Afford an All-Out War with Israel?
As reported by the New York Times, citing three Iranian officials, briefed on the order, including two members of the Revolutionary Guards, the risk of an Israel-Iran war looms large as Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly in retaliation for the assassination.
Iran’s April attack with over 300 missiles in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy compound that killed several Iranian military commanders in Damascus was more for domestic consumption than to hurt Israel. It was sort of ‘telegraphed’ and Israel, USA, France and England were able to shoot down practically all of them.
In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Iran’s mission to the UN said the response to the strike would be comprised of ‘special operations’, which would be ‘harder and intended to instil deep regret to the perpetrator’.
Israel is a nuclear power with some 190 nuclear warheads whereas Iran is still struggling to make one. Still, the historical experience of centuries shows that leaders can behave in a most irrational, almost suicidal way also. It remains to be seen what courage Iran musters now.
Also Read: Iran, the ‘Axis of Evil’, needs to be brought down to its knees
Netanyahu is not a fool. He has taken a calculated risk by ordering this assassination. “We are prepared for any scenario and we will stand united and determined against any threat. Israel will exact a heavy price for any aggression against us from any arena,” he said.
The choice of Tehran to kill Haniyeh, as opposed to Qatar, where he mostly lives, was more than just opportunity. It was calculated to show to the world as well as Iran that they could not defend their most prized proxy asset, even in their own capital. That was tremendous humiliation!
All those people who are trying to frighten the world with the possibility of escalation leading even to a Third World War are actually known veiled supporters of Hamas. The technique is simple: Since they cannot bring themselves up to castigating Hamas for its horrible crime, they seek to divert the attention of the world by castigating Israel for its retaliation and the unavoidable collateral damage in the war.
Israel’s position is straightforward. No peace is possible unless the 115 hostages still in custody are released. Why is the breast-beating world silent on that?
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